Global Market Study HPV

Purpose & Background

Several countries across regions and income groups have notified WHO of constraints to their access of HPV vaccines. The issue of affordability has also been raised, particularly by non-Gavi MICs. Following the announcement of a call for action towards global elimination of cervical cancer by the WHO Director General in May 2018, increasing introduction and coverage of HPV vaccine worldwide will be key. Working to understand current and future global trends and drivers of supply and demand, this study aims to address the current and expected constraints and to serve as an important resource for the development of the cervical cancer elimination strategy.

Market Highlights

As of May 2018, 81 countries (42% of UN Member States, corresponding to 25% of target population) had introduced HPV into the national routine immunization schedule.3 Despite carrying the greatest share of disease burden4, LICs and MICs are lagging in the introduction of HPV vaccine. To date, the majority of the countries have self-procured HPV vaccines (74% in 2017).

Currently, three HPV vaccine sub-types are available on the market: GSK’s Cervarix (HPV2), using the proprietary AS04 adjuvant, and Merck’s Gardasil (HPV4) and Gardasil 9 (HPV9), both using aluminum adjuvant. Merck’s two products are also commercialized by two licensors (Instituto Butantan in Brazil and Sinergium Biotech in Argentina). Distribution agreements exist in various countries. Current available evidence suggests that the three licensed HPV vaccines have relatively similar effectiveness in preventing cervical cancer.5

Estimated market share (volume) are as follows: HPV4: 52%, HPV9: 25% (increasing by 7% over 2016), HPV2: 21%.6 Though HPV vaccines make up only ~1% of the global vaccine market by volume, they account for ~15% of global market value (per 2017 MI4A estimates).